Technology, IT Performance

The extrapolated world of 2017

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Since we’re closing in on 2012, I thought I’d give the world of 2017 a little thought, after all it is only 5 years out.

There are many sources for trend information out there that you can use to calculate out some future stakes in the ground. One that has a great deal of this material is Ray Kurzweil’s book: The Singularity is Near. It is still relatively recent and has numerous graphs about technical trends. There is even a website with the underlying data and its sources. Using this information as well as a few other websites that claim to have newer relevant information, I did some linear and logarithmic extrapolation (based on the type of data and its growth curve) to come up with some metrics for the future.

For the Internet:

  • Number of internet nodes: 10 Billion
  • Internet traffic: 4.5x 10^21 Bytes per year
  • Home Internet Bandwidth: 290 Mb/s - Nielson's Law of Internet Bandwidth
  • Internet unique users: 3.35 Billion

In the IT hardware space

  • System memory: 6.8 Billion bits per $
  • Average transistor price: 2.7x10^9 Transistors per $
  • Transistors per processor: 13 Billion
  • Wireless performance: 370Mb/s - Edholm's Law of Bandwidth
  • Magnetic Storage: 41 Terabytes per $

In the Health care space

  • Cost of DNA Sequencing 3x10^-4 dollars per sequenced pair (clearly this low price will change how ailments (or likely ailments) are diagnosed

Global population

  • 7.4 Billion people (This one was interesting because it had numbers ranging all over the map based on the assumptions that were used).

I am not saying these are “Right”, but these numbers should be the basis of some significant thought.

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Discussion
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pcalento
Paul Calento 256 Points | Tue, 12/27/2011 - 23:26

Strong rationale for the "Big Data" trend. Two issues at hand: how to merely handle this growth with similar budgets, staffing, etc; and how to make sense of the data itself. Many of us are reactionary and will only begin to address these challenges once (sadly) 2017 us upon us.

--Paul Calento

(note: I work on projects sponsored by EnterpriseCIOForum.com and HP)

pearl
Pearl Zhu 90 Points | Mon, 12/12/2011 - 17:54

Hi, Charles, very interesting data based prediction, since John commented on the calculation of transistors based on Moore's law quantitively, I would say, qualitatively, the singularity is more about broader unification: internet things means hardware and software convergence, social thing means human can exchange the thought and mind more seamlessly, neuroscience meet with techonology, which means human can truely have more interactive thinking and doing relationship with machine, to influence every perspective of our society more radically. 

jdodge
John Dodge 1461 Points | Wed, 12/07/2011 - 19:56

Still do not understand naked $, but am guessing it means $1....

It would seem 13 billion transister per CPU would accelerate Moore's Law...so I will now prove how bad I am at math.....

If Moore's Law calls for a doubling of transistors every 18 months (some argue Moore said two years)...six years would almost be at the end of 2017 so let's use a 4x application of Moore's Law. 

The i7 quad core has 713,000,000 transistors...4X Moore's Law @ 18 months = 11,408,000,000...hmmmm, I'd say Moore's Law is pretty durable. 3x @ 24 months not so much....a mere 5,704,000,000 gates. But pick your processor to prove the point....an 8 core Nahalem has 2.3 million transistors.

Does multi core really count? Are we talking a single core?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transistor_count 

 

 

 



 

cebess
Charles Bess 89 Points | Wed, 12/07/2011 - 16:01
Sorry if I confused anyone with the earlier version of this post. The superscript disappeared in translation so I had to go to a programming version of exponential notation (e.g., 1x10^4).