Remember when IDC and other large research firms tracked PC shipments. Well, they still do, but for its part, IDC is starting to track the "worldwide smart connected device" market which now humbly lumps PCs into the booming market for smart phones and tablets.
If you needed any evidence that BYOD is not going away next year like a few pundits have said, chew on this: IDC projects the sales of 717.5 million smart phones in 2012 or about twice as many PCs, both portable and desktop. The gulf will widen in 2016 when 1,405.3 million smart phones versus 419.8 desktop and portable PCs.
Tablets will slightly outsell portable PCs in 2016, 282.7 million to 268.8 million units. I wonder if smart phones threaten the full size tablet. By 2016, smart phones could have morphed into something else as voice gives way to texting and god knows what else. Four years is century in the technology world.
It's hard to imagine that the enormous volume of smart phones will not swamp IT departments as we know them today. It tooks years to perfect mobile device management (MDM) on the PCs, which stand largely alone as reasonably safe devices for enterprise deployment except for the Blackberry and the Windows phone, which has yet to prove itself as a mainstream platform.
But BYOD and a semblance of security can co-exist: Check out these posts: "The IT checklist: What to do when you are no longer a Blackberry shop" and "Without a strong mobile workforce, you might as well give up."
Here's the IDC press release that came out today. Click here to see the chart by product category.
10 Dec 2012
FRAMINGHAM, Mass., December 10, 2012 – The worldwide smart connected device market – a collective view of PCs, tablets, and smartphones – grew 27.1% year-over-year in the third quarter of 2012 (3Q12) reaching a record 303.6 million shipments valued at $140.4 billion dollars. Expectations for the holiday season quarter are that shipments will continue to reach record levels rising 19.2% over 3Q12 and 26.5% over the same quarter a year ago. According to the International Data Corporation (IDC)Worldwide Quarterly Smart Connected Device Tracker, 4Q12 shipments are expected to reach 362.0 million units with a market value of $169.2 billion dollars. Holiday season growth will be driven by tablets and smartphones, which are expected to grow 55.8% and 39.5% year-over-year respectfully, while PCs are expected to decline slightly from this quarter a year ago.
From a vendor perspective, Samsung maintained the top position in 3Q12 with 21.8% market share based on shipments. Apple, which ranked second overall in shipments, led all vendors in value with a total of $34.1 billion in 3Q12 and an average selling price (ASP) of $744 across all device categories. Following Samsung's 21.8% share and Apple's 15.1% share were Lenovo (7.0%), HP (4.6%), and Sony (3.6%). While Samsung, Apple, and Lenovo have all grown share over the past year, HP, which is virtually non-existent in the mobile space, has dropped its share from 7.4% in 3Q11 to 4.6% in 3Q12 with shipments declining -20.5% during that time.
"The battle between Samsung and Apple at the top of the smart connected device space is stronger than ever," said Ryan Reith, program manager, Worldwide Mobile Device Trackers at IDC. "Both vendors compete at the top of the tablet and smartphone markets. However, the difference in their collective ASPs is a telling sign of different market approaches. The fact that Apple's ASP is $310 higher than Samsung's with just over 20 million fewer shipments in the quarter speaks volumes about the premium product line that Apple sells."
Looking forward, IDC expects the worldwide smart connected device space will continue to surge well past the strong holiday quarter and predicts shipments to surpass 2.1 billion units in 2016 with a market value of $796.7 billion worldwide. IDC's research clearly shows this to be a multi-device era, although market dynamics are shifting in terms of product category. In 2011, PC's – a combination of desktop and portable PCs – accounted for 39.1% of the smart connected device market. By 2016 it is expected to drop to 19.9%. Smartphones will be the preferred product category with share growing from 53.1% in 2011 to 66.7% in 2016. Tablets will also grow significantly with share growing from 7.7% in 2011 to 13.4% in 2016. The shift in demand from the more expensive PC category to more reasonably priced smartphones and tablets will drive the collective market ASP from $534 in 2011 to $378 in 2016.
"Both consumers and business workers are finding the need for multiple 'smart' devices and we expect that trend to grow for several years, especially in more developed regions," said Bob O'Donnell, program vice president, Clients and Displays. "The advent of cloud-based services is enabling people to seamlessly move from device to device, which encourages the purchase and usage of different devices for different situations."
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