One question recently posed to me at a BAI conference was “where do I believe the retail banking industry will be in 3-5 years with mobile commerce?”

http://www.youtube.com/user/verizonbusiness#p/a/u/0/Be1573sfzPQ

In addition to my video answer, here are some other thoughts from the ole crystal ball... 

Let me start by stating that we're still early enough in the mobile channel evolution that folks aren't necessarily even clear on the definition of mobile commerce.

What's included in mobile? What's included in commerce?

Mobile Commerce Defined:

My definition of mobile commerce includes all things mobile that allow a consumer or business to conduct information based and transactional activities in a non stationary environment.  

I'm sure you can poke holes in this definition, but in the spirit of keeping things simple let's go with that.

Focusing specifically on retail banking let's narrow the definition down further to include consumers only.  So stating the obvious first, we're seeing an onslaught of consumer adoption of smart phones and tablets. Part of this drive is due to the perceived value of mobile applications on these devices. Your bank or credit union either is offering some sort of mobile channel capabilities or is feverishly working towards that end. There will be continued improvement in the mobile channel for several years much as we saw with the online channel. 

Change is Inevitable

In 3-5 years we will have moved from the basic foundational mobile functionality such as viewing your account balance or finding the closest branch, to more sophisticated money movement activities such as P2P payments, global remittance and location based services.  These latter activities take a more complex ecosystem of technology and partners to enable and will require trials to prove out the technology and security.

Security Challenges

Banks also face the risk of nontraditional competitors competing in various areas, particularly mobile payments. As different business models and financial regulations emerge nothing can be taken for granted. Retail banks need to be refining their mobile strategies and ensuring that they are securing the necessary expertise and resources to deliver the required customer experience that's demanded.

The mobile road map is not entirely clear as to functionality, technology or even the key players, but what is certain is that it will move at a pace faster than any other banking channel we've seen.

Do you Think Forward?  What do you think will happen in the next 3 to 5 years?